New Maine Polling on Susan Collins and Impeachment

TO:            Interested Parties

FROM:       Geoff Garin

DATE:        January 21, 2020

RE:          New Maine Polling on Susan Collins and Impeachment

Our new poll, conducted by telephone between January 14 and January 19 with a representative cross section of 800 likely voters in Maine, shows that Susan Collins’ already weak position will be further weakened if she aligns herself with Mitch McConnell’s efforts to rig the impeachment trial of President Trump.

KEY FINDINGS

1.   A majority of Maine voters believe that President Trump is guilty of abusing the power of his office.

One of the articles of impeachment against President Trump is that he abused the power of his office for his personal benefit by withholding U.S. military aid to pressure Ukraine’s new leader into announcing an investigation of a potential opponent in the 2020 election.

Based on what you have heard, is President Trump guilty of abusing the power of his office for his personal benefit, or is he not guilty of doing this?

Yes, he is guilty of abusing power of his office……. 53
No, he is not guilty of this……………………………. 40
  Not sure …………………………………………….. 7

                Independent voters say by 57% to 36% that Trump is guilty of abusing the power of his office.

2.   Seven-in-ten voters say the Senate should insist on seeing relevant documents and calling witnesses who can provide direct, first-hand evidence.

In terms of the procedures for the Senate impeachment trial, one issue is whether the Senate should or should not subpoena relevant documents and call witnesses who have so far refused to cooperate, but who can provide direct, first-hand evidence about Trump’s actions.

Do you think the Senate should insist on seeing relevant documents and call witnesses who can provide direct, first-hand evidence about President Trump’s actions, or do you think it is not important for the Senate to see these documents and hear from these witnesses?

Should insist on seeing documents and call witnesses…….. 71
Not important to see documents and hear from witnesses ..   23
  Not sure ……………………………………………………….. 6

Registered Republicans in Maine say by 47% to 42% that the Senate should insist on seeing relevant documents and hearing from witnesses who can provide direct evidence.

3.   Maine voters do not trust Susan Collins to put principle above politics, and if she votes to acquit President Trump a majority say it will be because she is following a party line and doing what she believes is in her own political interest.

When Susan Collins takes positions on controversial issues, do you think she generally (a) makes a principled decision about what’s best for the country and Maine, or (b) makes a political decision about what’s the best for her and least risky politically?

(A) Makes a principled decision…… 37
(B) Makes a political decision……… 50
  Both equally (VOL)………………… 8
  Not sure ……………………………. 5

         If Susan Collins votes to find President Trump not guilty in the impeachment trial, do you think she will vote that way (a) because she actually believes Trump did not commit an impeachable offense, or (b) because she is following a party line and doing what she thinks is in her own best political interest?

(A) Believes Trump did not commit an impeachable offense .. 39
(B) Following a party line/doing what’s in her political interest   51
  Not sure ………………………………………………………….. 10

4.   Maine voters who know Mitch McConnell dislike him by a 2-to-1 margin, so Susan Collins’ alliance with McConnell on key impeachment votes is likely to confirm voters’ skepticism of her.

      Overall, 43% of Maine voters have a negative opinion of McConnell, compared to just 21% who have a positive opinion of him; 16% are neutral and 20% do not recognize his name.

This survey was conducted for SMP.  The party identification of the respondents in the sample is 37% Democratic, 37% Republican, and 26% independent.