New Poll Shows Senator Flake in Deep Trouble

To: Interested Parties

From: GBA Strategies

Date: September 12th, 2017

The depth of Senator Jeff Flake’s political problem is clear from a new Arizona poll of both likely 2018 general election voters and likely Republican primary voters. Flake has completely surrendered the Republican base with his apostasy and is getting shellacked by Kelli Ward. Meanwhile, Flake is also deeply unpopular with general election voters, including Independents who give him little credit for his stand against President Trump.

This memo highlights key findings from the survey of 600 likely 2018 general election voters and 500 likely 2018 Republican primary voters.

Key Findings – Republican Primary

  • Flake is deeply unpopular with Republican primary voters. Republican primary voters offer Flake an abysmal 25 percent favorable – 56 percent unfavorable rating. And 59 percent disapprove of the job he’s doing, while just 34 percent approve.
  • Ward trounces Flake in vote matchup. Kelli Ward leads Flake 58 – 31 percent in a head-to-head matchup, an outstandingly large deficit for an incumbent. Flake trails by 20+ points with registered Republicans and Unaffiliated voters, men and women, and in every region of the state.
  • Mitch McConnell is wildly unpopular and his Super PAC is not helping Flake. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has an astoundingly low favorability rating with Republican primary voters in Arizona, 17 percent favorable – 42 percent unfavorable. McConnell’s Super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, launched a digital attack ad campaign against Ward, but it is not working because, as noted above, Ward leads Flake by 27 points.

Key Findings – General Election

  • General election voters disapprove of Flake across the political spectrum. Flake’s troubles with the Republican base are compounded by problems with general election voters. Flake suffers from negative personal ratings, 23 percent favorable – 48 percent unfavorable, and negative job approval ratings, 38 percent approve – 50 percent disapprove. Independents give Flake a 20 percent favorable – 50 percent unfavorable rating, almost as bad as Democrats (17 percent favorable — 51 percent unfavorable).
  • Flake is losing the general election. Against Kyrsten Sinema, Flake trails 47 – 40 percent and is trailing by 13 points among Independent voters.
  • McConnell unpopular across the board. Senate Majority Leader McConnell has a 12 percent favorable – 46 percent unfavorable rating with likely general election voters.

Methodology

GBA Strategies conducted a survey of 600 likely 2018 general election voters and 500 likely Republican primary voters. The survey was conducted August 30 – September 7, 2017. All surveys were conducted by trained interviewers, reaching voters on cell phones and landlines. The general election sample is subject to a +/- 4.0 percentage point margin of error, while the Republican primary sample is subject to a +/- 4.4 percentage point margin of error.